Probabilistic Model for Predicting Performance of Students.

The learning results depend not only on a desire to study. The connection

between the state of laziness and the academic performance of students is

approximately the same as the connection between the state of interest to

learning and the academic performance (the Spearmen coefficient is equal to

0.279 and 0.294 respectively). The nature of the above connection helps to

build a model of students’ performance. No interest to learning and the

resultant laziness impact the deterioration in academic performance of the

student, though this impact is mitigated by the interest of parents. As a result,

the student’s performance turns out to be higher compared to a situation

when there is no interest on the side of the parents. It is obvious that the

impact of the parents’ interest on the behavior of students in relation to the

learning has a positive role and improves their performance. But the impact

of the parents’ interest may also have an opposite effect8.

Conclusion

Therefore, an absolute majority of Russian students are interested in

learning. At the same time almost every forth student shows no interest to

learning. The degree of the students’ interest to learning substantially affects

the pattern of their behavior towards learning. The lack of interest to learning

reduces academic performance, ability to cope with the homework, induces

laziness and reluctance to act and make efforts in order to obtain school

knowledge. Meanwhile deterioration in the academic performance due to the

lack of interest to learning is mitigated by the influence of parents. Thus the

interest to learning as a generalizing characteristic of “the inner human” of

the student is a meaningful factor shaping his behavior in relation to learning,

and its impact can be adjusted by parents.

           Тема 3.  Изучение особенностей академического письма в сравнении с другими видами речевой деятельности. Различные жанры письменных академических текстов (10 ч.).

Задание 1. Написание обоснования исследования по теме ВКР

Задание 2. Написание рецензии научной статьи.

 

Svetlana A. SERGEEVA, Niyaz KADYROV, Evgenia STROGANOVA

Theoretical Fundamentals and Practice of Formation of Professional

Competencies of Experts in the Field of Procurement for the Use of

Statistical Analysis Results

Svetlana A. SERGEEVA, Niyaz KADYROV, Evgenia STROGANOVA

Moscow Metropolitan Governance University, Moscow, Russia

Abstract. The paper studies the theoretical foundations and the existing practice of

forming professional competencies of specialists in the field of procurement for the use of statistical

analysis results. Economic and social statistics is based on the methodological and theoretical

provisions of the current economic theory, studies economic aspects in dynamics and statistics,

interrelationships of economic phenomena. State procurement as an object of statistical analysis

becomes particularly relevant. Methodical recommendations were developed with a view to

methodological support of the development of the efficiency of procurement activities through providing

consulting services to customers in determining the procedure for the statistical analysis of the

procurement volume and making managerial decisions based on the received statistical information.

Keywords: professional competencies, procurement specialist, statistical

analysis.

Introduction

Statistical information shows patterns that exist in mass social and

economic phenomena and the study of these patterns refers to one of the

fundamental tasks of the economic science and practice.1 For a qualitative

solution of the set tasks, it is needed to form an information base of the data

that is generated through the provision of reports by different divisions, the

conduct of various studies and expert assessments. In the modern economic

and social environment, the role of statistics is constantly growing. Evolution

in the economic sphere requires new managerial paradigms, and,

consequently, more data for making the most effective decisions at all levels.2

Statistic data is officially published information, which gives a quantitative

description of mass phenomena and events. The Federal Program "State

Statistics Development in 2007-2011" contributed to the great changes in the

field of state statistics, the Federal Law "On Official Statistical Accounting"

promoted the development of methodologies and techniques of statistical

science. Economic and social statistics are closely interrelated, and economic

aspects are not studied separately from social ones. These sections are

combined in a statistical science showing those economic and social

processes that are characteristic for the society during a particular period of

time. The information and results obtained during the research are used not

only by the industry that was the subject of the study and regarding which

materials were collected, but also applied when solving certain issues in other

economic and social sectors. For example, population statistics data is

needed to solve specific tasks in such areas as education, health care,

housebuilding, etc.

Domestic and foreign researchers of the theory and practice of public

administration note a significant rate of change in conceptual approaches to

public procurement as one of the most important segments of the economy

of each country. We are witnessing a reassessment of traditional models of

procurement management and the transition to models aimed at improving

the quality of managerial activities, allowing the achievement of high

economic and social results of each procurement. For example, in the

countries of the European Union, after the acceptance of the Public

Procurement Directive, procurement departments of local governments

prioritize the problems of risk management in the procurement process. The

ability to identify risk areas, to analyze the possible consequences of each of

the options for preventing a particular risk can not be determined without an

appropriate statistical analysis of a particular procurement area. The

complexity of applying the experience of other countries in the field of

procurement is the basic difference between the Russian public procurement

system and foreign equivalents, the absence of a single generally accepted

international terminology in this field and the general heterogeneity of the

situation and conditions in various countries.

The effectiveness of functioning of the public procurement

mechanism is largely determined by the presence of a regulatory framework,

and therefore it is constantly updated. In particular, the legislation introduced

new legal norms affecting the activities of government customers, the

performance of which influences the functioning of the entire system as a

whole. Not only economic, but also social effects of procurement are an

urgent scientific task, requiring a theoretical and practical solution. In order

to optimize the procurement activities, it is necessary to introduce new

management technologies that will affect the nature of procurement activities

and their professional provision. The solution of these tasks is possible at the

availability of the highly skilled personnel in the field of procurement. The

problem of using results of statistical analysis of the volume, structure,

dynamics of procurement in making managerial decisions aimed at the

quality of goods, works and services purchased, can be solved if there is the

development of corresponding professional competencies of specialists in

the procurement filed, which is an urgent scientific objective.

Thus, the analysis of scientific literature and procurement practices

allowed the confirmation of a hypothetical assumption that achieving high

quality of the purchased goods, works, services is possible taking into

account all the positive and negative features of each purchase. Such data can

be obtained with the use of modern statistical tools, which allows the

objective assessment of the volume and structure of purchases. At the same

time, no matter how effective the set of statistical tools is, if there are no

specialists ready not only to carry out a statistical analysis of purchases, but

also to apply the results competently to prevent possible risks, the quality of

procurement will not change taking into account statistical indicators. In

order to solve this problem, it is needed to introduce the foundations of

statistics in training programs in terms of application to procurement.

Literature review

Statistical issues in the field of procurement in modern economic and

management theory remain an insufficiently developed scientific problem. A

qualitative statistical analysis of the procurement volume is impossible

without the appropriate training of personnel engaged in procurement in the

field of statistics. It should be remembered that unresolved theoretical and

methodological problems of the contract system in the procurement of

goods, works, services (for example, the lack of a unified approach to the

interpretation of the "public procurement” concept) does not allow a clear

determination of the range of statistical issues required for mastering by

specialists in the field of procurement.3 Theoretical and practical questions

of procurement management are widely represented in the works of native

scientists. N.V. Afanasyeva studies the state order as an instrument of

macroeconomic regulation of the economy.4 N.R. Arykbayev presents in his

works the analysis of risks and ways of their management within the

framework of state (municipal) procurement.5 I.P. Gladilina considers the

methodological support for the development of the professionalism of

customers as a problem of human resourcing in the field of procurement6.

V.S. Gladkov accords the economy state management with issues of public

procurement management.7 G.V. Degtev and his colleagues investigate the

issues of audit in the field of procurement as one of the priority areas for the

formation of a contract system in the procurement sphere.8 The international

procurement experience is highlighted in the works of V. Fedorovich,

A. Patron, V. Zavarukhin.9 Statistical analysis of the structure and volume of

procurement is considered by M.V. Karmanov, S.A. Sergeeva.10 Among the

foreign researchers of procurement management problems, the works of

such scientists as J. Albano, A. Wambach, G. Peega, J., Spagnolo, N. Dimitri

and others are of interest for our research.11

At the same time, it is necessary to recognize that this scientific

problem has acquired special topicality in the conditions of implementation

of provisions of the state program "Digital Economy". The digital economy,

in terms of procurement, will require new management solutions for quality

management of quality purchases. The understanding of this fact actualizes

the problem of training specialists in the field of procurement relating to the

statistical analysis of various factors in procurement activities, as the basis of

competent management decisions is among the many mandatory factors and

statistical analysis data.

Thus, the declared subject has a high degree of relevance for a

number of reasons:

 In the priority, there is search for key factors of the economic

growth of the national economy in order to ensure global competitiveness,

among which qualitative and highly efficient purchases of goods, works,

services providing state needs are of particular importance.

 The analysis of current challenges hampering the institutional

transformation and economic growth of the state allows considering state,

municipal and corporate purchases as the most important element for

solving a wide range of problems.

Methodological framework

The objective is the formation of the professional competence of

customers for working with the statistical information, which consists in

studying and evaluating the results of statistical analysis of different

indicators of procurement of goods, works, services which ensure state

needs.

Research objectives:

1. Substantiating the necessity of professional implementation of

statistical analysis of the volume, structure and other indicators of

procurement.

2. Developing a model for the preparation of customers for the work

with statistical information in order to make considered management

decisions.

The methodological basis of the research is the scientific approaches

to the economic and management justification of conclusions and

recommendations that allow the evaluation and forecasting of future trends

as well as proposing optimal solutions to meet the challenges that we face

when implementing the objectives of the sustainable social and economic

development of the country. The research is based on the analysis of existing

procurement practices with a focus on the following methodological

principles: objectivity, unity of theory and practice, systematicity,

purposefulness, effectiveness.

Results and discussion

The procurement activity is characterized by constant dynamic

changes that require customers to expand their professional competencies

not only in the field of procurement, but also in other fields. The

professional standard "Procurement Specialist" defines the following

generalized labor functions:

 Provision of procurement for state, municipal and corporate

needs.

 Procurement process for state, municipal and corporate needs.

 Examination of results of procurement, acceptance of contracts.

 Control in the field of procurement.

The customer's goal is the procurement of goods and services in

accordance with the principles of openness, transparency of information,

providing competition, professionalism of customers, stimulating innovation,

unity of the contract system in the procurement sphere, responsibility for

"Theoretical Fundamentals and Practice of Formation of Professional

Competencies of Experts in the Field of Procurement for the Use of

Statistical Analysis Results," providing the effectiveness of the institution needs, and the procurement effectiveness.12 In order to achieve this goal, the customer forms a contract service or appoints a contract manager.

According to Part 3 of Art. 3 of the Contract System Law, the

procurement of goods, works, services for providing state or municipal needs

is a set of actions carried out in accordance with the procedure carried out by

the customer according to the Contract System Law and aimed at providing

state or municipal needs. The procurement begins with the definition of the

supplier (contractor, performer) and ends with the fulfillment of obligations

by the parties to the contract, while respecting the principle of competition

development.13 The implementation of labor actions requires the ability to

process large amounts of information, including statistical information, to

analyze this information and to calculate the consequences of decisions taken

on the basis of analysis in order to improve the procurement system in the

institution and to eliminate inefficient elements of procurement activities.

The procurement statistical analysis is a prerequisite for determining

the economic and social effects of a particular procurement. For the

competent elementary statistical analysis, processing of the obtained data and

their use in making management decisions, the formulation of relevant

professional competencies for procurement specialists is required. It should

be remembered that economic effects include a rather wide range of

indicators. For example, the metropolitan region has an important indicator

of the efficiency of the procurement cycle. According to the Moscow City

Competition Policy Department, the annual efficiency of the procurement

cycle is 31% of the total annual savings, over 150 billion rubles. Such

indicator became possible as a result of interdisciplinary coordination of

procurement, examination of initial prices, operation of a two-level city

contract system, which is represented by the following management

algorithm:

1. Justification of the need and formation of procurement schedules.

2. Standardization of capital procurement.

3. Examination of the initial (maximum) contract prices.

4. Open and competitive bidding.

5. Management of budgetary obligations.

6. Control of execution and completion of state contracts.

The research showed that the calculation of the economic efficiency

of procurement will be deeper in nature and objectivity subject to the

professional implementation of statistical analysis of the procurement

volume of the capital metropolis.

The managerial effect of a successful outcome of the procurement is

one of the fundamental effects, since it is professional and competent

management decisions that allow achieving the high-quality performance of

works, delivery of goods, provision of services. When determining the

managerial effect level, a key role is played by the statistical information in

general and statistical analysis of the procurement volume in particular. Based

on the theoretical analysis of the existing conceptual construct of

procurement activities, of the contract system in the field of procurement, of

the institution of public procurement in general, an instrumental approach of

the "management effect" of the successful outcome of the procurement

based on the impact of the statistical analysis of the volume of procurement

in making appropriate management decisions and algorithms for their

implementation was developed and justified.

The evolution of a qualitative data system is a tremendous push for

increasing the efficiency of work in the social and economic fields, making

professional management decisions for the most effective implementation of

tasks. At the moment, there are no uniform requirements to the quality level

of the incoming data, since the concepts of "comparability" and "reliability"

are mainly used, that is not regulated by law.14 Nevertheless, the concept of

managerial effect is of great importance. The evolution in the economic

sphere requires new managerial paradigms, and, therefore, more data for

making the most effective decisions at all levels.15

All data related to statistics must be comparable and reliable.

Reliability is the complete correspondence of the received data to reality.

One of the main tasks of technology, arrangement and methods of statistical

observation is providing the maximum reliability of incoming information.

The reliability of statistical data depends on the employee’ characteristics (the

level of professionalism, the available organizational skills, the

communication level, etc.) and the level of used tools (programs for

collecting statistics, statistics collection forms, their operating instructions).

One of the main provisions of statistical reporting is its veracity. This

requirement is affected by a number of factors shown in Fig. 1.

Figure 1. Correspondence of statistical reporting to real facts

Source: the authors

The conditions of maximum reliability of information are:

 Maximum accuracy of information distribution.

 Maximum coverage of the object of observation.

 Uniformity and comparability of information16.

Also, the level of reliability of statistical data is influenced by the level

of preparation of the object of statistical research, which is based on the

preliminary notification on conducting the statistical research. One of the

most important conditions for high reliability of the statistical information is

the level of coverage of objects under study, the accuracy and completeness

of the incoming data.

The comparability of statistical data is achieved due to the collection

in a certain period of time and the methodology uniformity. The

comparability contributes to the clarity of methodology and arrangement of

the statistical observation. One of the main conditions for the comparability

observance is the constant value of the observation period.

The data composition is based on the needs of society. At present,

the main consumers of statistics are government organizations, private

companies, international structures and society. In our time, as a rule, the

statistical information is generally available.

In the course of the research, a model for the preparation of

customers for working with statistical information was created and tested in

order to develop and make management decisions based on statistical data of

the procurement volume (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Model of preparation of customers for work with statistical information

Source: the authors

The model of preparation of customers for work with statistical

information in the field of the procurement volume on the example of the

Economic effect of

procurement

Management effect of

procurement based on

the results of statistical

analysis of the

procurement volume

Social effect of

procurement

Expected result:

stable positive dynamics of the quality of procurement on the basis of expansion of

existing and forming new professional competencies of specialists in procurement for a competent statistical analysis of the procurement volume, as well as making

informed management decisions based on the received statistical information

Completeness of information

Reliability of information

Responsibility

The objective is to prepare customers for working with statistical information

in order to make managerial decisions based on objective statistical data

Principles

Organizational and management module

Methodological

support of the

statistical analysis of

the procurement

volume

Development of

professional

competencies in the

field of statistical

analysis of the

procurement volume

Exchange of

experience (network

interaction, discussion

platform, etc.)

Analysis and results module

city of Moscow includes: objectives, principles, organizational and

management module, analysis and results module, expected results. The

implementation of this model helps to improve the quality of procurement

and provides the following result: stable positive dynamics of the quality of

procurement on the basis of expansion of existing and forming new

professional competencies of specialists in procurement for a competent

statistical analysis of the procurement volume, as well as making informed

management decisions based on the received statistical information. This

model required the development of an additional professional program

aimed at achieving the stated objective.

Let us consider the key aspects of the data sheet of the additional

professional development program "Fundamentals of Statistical Analysis of

Procurement Volume".

The program objective is the formation of professional competencies of

procurement specialists in the field of statistical analysis of the procurement

volume in order to achieve some sustainable positive dynamics in the quality

of procurement activities.

Program tasks:

 Acquainting listeners with new theoretical and practical

knowledge in the field of statistical analysis of the procurement volume and

making informed management decisions based on the received statistical

information.

 Expanding existing and creating new professional competencies in

the field of statistical analysis of the procurement volume.

Formed special professional competence

 The ability to take responsibility for the arrangement and quality

of statistical analysis of the procurement volume.

 The ability to comply with ethical standards with respect to the

amount of information obtained as a result of statistical analysis.

 The ability to professionally use the received statistical information

in order to achieve a sustainable positive dynamics of the qualitative

implementation of procurement activities.

Thus, the model of preparing customers for work with statistical

information in the field of the procurement volume will help to improve the

quality of procurement and ensure the achievement of the following result:

stable positive dynamics of the quality of procurement on the basis of

expansion of existing and forming new professional competencies of

specialists in procurement for a competent statistical analysis of the

procurement volume, as well as making informed management decisions

based on the received statistical information.

Conclusion

The vector of economic development and concrete steps for

implementing the strategy of long-term sustainable growth will require a

fairly wide use of procurement of goods, works, services, in order to provide

the implementation of key factors of economic growth of the national

economy. The objective of preparing customers for work with statistical

information is expansion of the existing and creation of new professional

competencies of specialists in the field of procurement in order to perform a

competent statistical analysis of the procurement volume and to make

informed management decisions based on the received statistical

information.

Principles of preparation of customers for work with statistical

information:

 Completeness, validity, competence and legality of the statistical

analysis of the procurement volume and its results.

 Reliability, objectivity and impartiality.

 Responsibility for the arrangement, conducting and quality of the

statistical analysis of the procurement volume.

 Observance of ethical standards in relation to the information

obtained from the statistical analysis of procurement.

The above principles are complementary, which allows the

adherence of ethical standards in the process of statistical analysis of the

procurement volume, the achievement of the quality of actions performed, the used of statistical tools required in each specific case.

A procurement specialist having the required professional

competencies for performing a statistical analysis of the procurement volume

is a professional with a high or sufficient level of special knowledge,

experience and qualifications that enable him/her to solve the tasks at a

given time and to prepare appropriate analytical, reference, informative and other documents for the development of the required management decision.

Задание.Провести дискуссию по прочитанной статье

    Требования к формулировке темы дискуссии:

-проблемность (поливариантность, наличие разных подходов, столкновение мнений);

-ясность (однозначность понимания проблемы, выделение одной проблемы, тема не должна давать возможность для обсуждения огромного числа проблем);

-компетентность участников (соответствие сложности дискуссионного вопроса уровню подготовки обсуждающих);

-корректность (не должны задеваться личные чувства участников дискуссии, формулировка темы должна соответствовать принципу научности);

-объективность (тема не должна оказывать давления на тех, кто ее обсуждает).

Задание 3. Подготовка структуры научной статьи по теме свего исследования (название (заголовок); аннотация; ключевые слова; введение; обзор литературы; основная часть (методология, результаты); выводы и дальнейшие перспективы исследования; список литературы).

4. Создание вторичных текстов:

А) правила написания аннотации на английком языке:

Требования к аннотации:

1. Вводная часть:

- название оригинала на русском языке;

- фамилия и имя автора;

- название статьи на языке оригинала;

- название журнала, книги;

- место и издательство на иностранном языке;

- год, номер издания, количество страниц.

2. Описательная часть:

- указание темы;

- перечень основных положений оригинала;

- предельно сжатая характеристика.

3. Заключительная часть:

- подведение итога изложения оригинала;

- перечень иллюстраций, чертежей, библиография;

- возможные рекомендации и оценки автора аннотации.

 

Б) подготовка и  написания реферата научной статьи.

  Требования к содержанию реферативного перевода

1. Реферат строится на основе ключевых фрагментов, выделенных из текста подлинника.

2. Реферат должен быть написан литературным языком с соблюдением сокращений широко употребляемых слов, обозначений и единиц физических величин.

3. В реферативном переводе должна быть использована научная терминология, принятая в научной литературе по той или иной отрасли науки и техники.

4. Реферативный перевод должен объективно и точно отражать содержание первоисточника; нельзя вносить какие-либо изменения или дополнения по существу реферируемой работы; нельзя излагать собственную точку зрения или критические замечания, вступать в полемику с автором.

5. Текст реферативного перевода рекомендуется делить на абзацы.

6. Главная мысль в реферативном переводе должна быть конкретизирована и выделена.

5. Написание аннотации своей научной статьи.

Тема 4.  Устное выступление по теме исследования (20  ч.).

1. Структура презентаций. Представление темы исследования магистранта  на иностранном языке, руководствуясь ниже данной структурой.

    Основные речевые клише, необходимые для построения презентации на профессиональную тему.

Key expressions for Presentation (ключевые фразы для проведения презентаций)

Greeting (Приветствие)

Good morning everyone.	Show the translation	Hide the translation
Good morning. I’d like to welcome you all here this morning.	Show the translation	Hide the translation
Good morning. I’m delighted to be here today.	Show the translation	Hide the translation
Good morning. Thank you for coming. Let me introduce myself. My name is…	Show the translation	Hide the translati