Global temperatures in 2018 fourth hottest on record, scientists confirm

Global temperatures in 2018 were the fourth warmest on record, US government scientists have confirmed, adding to a stretch of five years that are now collectively the hottest period since modern measurements began.

The world in 2018 was 1.5F (0.83C) warmer than the average set between 1951 and 1980, said Nasa and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa). This means 2018’s average global temperatures were the fourth warmest since 1880, placing it behind 2016, 2017 and 2015.

This follows a broader pattern of human-induced climate change, which is boosting increasingly punishing heatwaves, sea level rises and extreme weather. Last year saw a pair of devastating hurricanes hit the eastern US, while record wildfires ravaged California.

There was disastrous flooding in India, a huge typhoon in the Philippines and deadly wildfires in Greece and Sweden. The Arctic, which had its second warmest year on record, experienced temperature highs that astonished scientists.

“2018 is yet again an extremely warm year on top of a long-term global warming trend,” said Gavin Schmidt, director of Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

“The impacts of long-term global warming are already being felt – in coastal flooding, heatwaves, intense precipitation and ecosystem change.”

Nasa and Noaa’s annual climate reports, which were delayed because of the federal government shutdown, echo findings by Berkley Earth and Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, which both recently stated 2018 was the fourth warmest on record.

On Wednesday, the World Meteorological Organization announced it, too, measured 2018 as the fourth warmest on record. It said 2016 remains the warmest on record due to a particularly strong El Niño, which is a periodic event that warms parts of the Pacific Ocean and influences weather patterns around the world.

“The long-term temperature trend is far more important than the ranking of individual years, and that trend is an upward one,“ said Petteri Taalas, secretary general of the WMO. “The 20 warmest years on record have been in the past 22 years. The degree of warming during the past four years has been exceptional, both on land and in the ocean.”

Taalas said the extreme weather events of the past year have had “devastating repercussions” for people, economies and ecosystems.

“Many of the extreme weather events are consistent with what we expect from a changing climate,” he said. “This is a reality we need to face up to. Greenhouse gas emission reduction and climate adaptation measures should be a top global priority.”

The relentless warming has highlighted the steep challenges faced by governments if they want to avoid the worst effects of climate change. The world needs to halve its greenhouse gas emissions by the 2030s to avoid breaching limits set out in the Paris climate agreement, the UN warned last year, at a time when global emissions show no sign of decline.

Britain’s Met Office on Wednesday warned the 1.5C temperature increase limit agreed in Paris, compared with a pre-industrial baseline, could start to be exceeded far sooner than many predicted. The Met Office said there is a 10% chance of at least one year between 2019 and 2023 temporarily exceeding 1.5C.

In January, the same organization warned that levels of planet-warming carbon dioxide will rise by a near-record amount in 2019. Levels of CO2 in the atmosphere have not been as prevalent on Earth for at least 3 million years – a period when the seas were 10-20 meters higher.

Licence to pollute

When the first international treaty to reduce greenhouse gas emissions was signed in 1997, people thought the community of nations would take the issue seriously. We were in for a surprise: the treaty came with an "environmental" excuse for rich nations and their polluting corporations to start an absurd trade in the world's carbon-absorbing capacity. They discovered able partners in the developing countries, who sensed a business opportunity.

Despite its persistent refusal to take on any international emission reduction commitments, India emerged as a favoured carbon market destination. A friendly government, a "clean" and aggressive corporate sector, and a happy band of national as well as transnational "validators", consultants and project developers made India a paradise for carbon "offset" projects. With a record-breaking 450 projects queuing to sell credits in the Kyoto carbon market, which will allow extra fossil fuel emissions in developed countries, India has opened the door for bigger profits than any carbon consultant could have imagined.

All big Indian corporations are on board - disproving earlier apprehensions that the complex nature of the Kyoto carbon market would put them off. Carbon credits were found to boost companies' stock prices significantly, even in cases where carbon credit sales were not publicly recorded.

It is assumed in India that carbon offset projects are so environmental they do not need impact assessment. Information on projects is rarely available. Each time we have looked at claims made about these projects' benefits, we found differences between the claims and reality.

We do not object to trading. But trading at whose expense? How can the government of India accept proposals from chronic polluters? How is it ascertained that the project proponent has the will or capacity to ensure social and environmental wellbeing when the factory violates existing Indian legislation? How can a project be considered as "clean development" when it adversely affects the ecology of communities? How can projects be registered on the basis of incomplete and falsified project documents?

The carbon offset market is proving to be a win-win scenario for greenhouse gas emitters in both hemispheres. The polluting industries continue emitting toxic fly ash and carbon dust, their effluents pollute rivers and underground aquifers, yet they earn extra money through flimsy claims of sustainability and emissions reductions. And the buyers in developed countries get certified licences to pollute. Governments, intergovernmental forums such as the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, NGOs and financial institutions oversee this merry process.

What happens to the people the carbon market is supposed to benefit? In India, Brazil, Uganda, South Africa, Chile and Thailand, people see their land taken away and destroyed for hydro dams and monoculture tree plantations, while liquid and gaseous filth continues to poison rivers and air. Glaciers continue to melt, flash floods wipe away villages and droughts and extreme temperatures create havoc with agriculture.

The real danger of climate change is offset by the illusion of the most absurd market human civilization has seen. And that is bad for the climate.